Accurate climate forecasting is vital for Bangladesh, a region highly susceptible to climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall. Existing models often struggle to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal patterns in climate data. This study introduces an advanced Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model integrated with an attention mechanism to enhance the prediction of temperature and rainfall dynamics. Utilizing comprehensive datasets from 1901-2023, sourced from NASA's POWER Project for temperature and the Humanitarian Data Exchange for rainfall, the model effectively captures seasonal and long-term trends. It outperforms baseline models, including XGBoost, Simple LSTM, and GRU, achieving a test MSE of 0.2411 (normalized units), MAE of 0.3860 degrees C, R^2 of 0.9834, and NRMSE of 0.0370 for temperature, and MSE of 1283.67 mm^2, MAE of 22.91 mm, R^2 of 0.9639, and NRMSE of 0.0354 for rainfall on monthly forecasts. The model demonstrates improved robustness with only a 20 percent increase in MSE under simulated climate trends (compared to an approximately 2.2-fold increase in baseline models without trend features) and a 50 percent degradation under regional variations (compared to an approximately 4.8-fold increase in baseline models without enhancements). These results highlight the model's ability to improve forecasting precision and offer potential insights into the physical processes governing climate variability in Bangladesh, supporting applications in climate-sensitive sectors.

Rainfall nowcasting, which aims to predict precipitation within the next 0 to 3 hours, is critical for disaster mitigation and real-time response planning. However, most time series forecasting benchmarks in meteorology are evaluated on variables with strong periodicity, such as temperature and humidity, which fail to reflect model capabilities in more complex and practically meteorology scenarios like rainfall nowcasting. To address this gap, we propose RainfallBench, a benchmark designed for rainfall nowcasting, a highly challenging and practically relevant task characterized by zero inflation, temporal decay, and non-stationarity, focused on predicting precipitation within the next 0 to 3 hours. The dataset is derived from five years of meteorological observations, recorded at 15-minute intervals across six essential variables, and collected from more than 12,000 GNSS stations globally. In particular, it incorporates precipitable water vapor (PWV), a crucial indicator of rainfall that is absent in other datasets. We further design specialized evaluation strategies to assess model performance on key meteorological challenges, such as multi-scale prediction and extreme rainfall events, and evaluate over 20 state-of-the-art models across six major architectures on RainfallBench. Additionally, to address the zero-inflation and temporal decay issues overlooked by existing models, we introduce Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF), a plug-and-play module that incorporates domain-specific priors to enhance rainfall time series forecasting. Statistical analysis and ablation studies validate the comprehensiveness of our dataset as well as the superiority of our methodology. Code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/RainfallBench-A710.

This study develops and evaluates a novel hybridWavelet SARIMA Transformer, WST framework to forecast using monthly rainfall across five meteorological subdivisions of Northeast India over the 1971 to 2023 period. The approach employs the Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, MODWT with four wavelet families such as, Haar, Daubechies, Symlet, Coiflet etc. to achieve shift invariant, multiresolution decomposition of the rainfall series. Linear and seasonal components are modeled using Seasonal ARIMA, SARIMA, while nonlinear components are modeled by a Transformer network, and forecasts are reconstructed via inverse MODWT. Comprehensive validation using an 80 is to 20 train test split and multiple performance indices such as, RMSE, MAE, SMAPE, Willmotts d, Skill Score, Percent Bias, Explained Variance, and Legates McCabes E1 demonstrates the superiority of the Haar-based hybrid model, WHST. Across all subdivisions, WHST consistently achieved lower forecast errors, stronger agreement with observed rainfall, and unbiased predictions compared with stand alone SARIMA, stand-alone Transformer, and two-stage wavelet hybrids. Residual adequacy was confirmed through the Ljung Box test, while Taylor diagrams provided an integrated assessment of correlation, variance fidelity, and RMSE, further reinforcing the robustness of the proposed approach. The results highlight the effectiveness of integrating multiresolution signal decomposition with complementary linear and deep learning models for hydroclimatic forecasting. Beyond rainfall, the proposed WST framework offers a scalable methodology for forecasting complex environmental time series, with direct implications for flood risk management, water resources planning, and climate adaptation strategies in data-sparse and climate-sensitive regions.

Accurate rainfall forecasting is crucial for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation in the North-East region of India, which is prone to extreme weather events such as floods and landslides. In this study, we investigated the use of two data-driven methods, Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for rainfall forecasting using daily rainfall data collected from India Meteorological Department in northeast region over a period of 118 years. We conducted a comparative analysis of these methods to determine their relative effectiveness in predicting rainfall patterns. Using historical rainfall data from multiple weather stations, we trained and validated our models to forecast future rainfall patterns. Our results indicate that both DMD and LSTM are effective in forecasting rainfall, with LSTM outperforming DMD in terms of accuracy, revealing that LSTM has the ability to capture complex nonlinear relationships in the data, making it a powerful tool for rainfall forecasting. Our findings suggest that data-driven methods such as DMD and deep learning approaches like LSTM can significantly improve rainfall forecasting accuracy in the North-East region of India, helping to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events and enhance the region's resilience to climate change.

ABSTRACT Regional rainfall forecasting is an important issue in hydrology and meteorology. This paper aims to design an integrated tool by applying various machine learning algorithms, especially the state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms including Deep Neural Network, Wide Neural Network, Deep and Wide Neural Network, Reservoir Computing, Long Short Term Memory, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbor for forecasting regional precipitations over different catchments in Upstate New York. Through the experimental results and the comparison among machine learning models including classification and regression, we find that KNN is an outstanding model over other models to handle the uncertainty in the precipitation data. The data normalization methods such as ZScore and MinMax are also evaluated and discussed. Keywords: rainfall forecasting, k-nearest neighbor, deep and wide neural network, reservoir computing, long short term memory. 1 INTRODUCTION New York historically had sufficient precipitation until recently, with intense drought occurring over the 2016 growing season, especially in western New York (Todaro 2018). The observed precipitation in 2016 was less than normal, with shortfalls of 4-8 inches being common in the 90 days leading up to the drought watch. Accurate rainfall forecasting is important for planning in agriculture and other relevant activities. Although a number of modern algorithms and applications have been used to forecast rainfall, there are two categories of approaches to solve the problem. However, it is thought not feasible limited by the complex climatic system in various spatial and temporal dimensions. A second category is based on the data mining and pattern recognition, which attempts to mine rainfall patterns and learn the knowledge from numerous features and a large volume of data. Historical meteorological data including precipitation data are used to feed and train the recognition model and further predict the evolution of other storms.